How accurate is Cloudbase Weather?Most weather apps use one forecast model for everything. Cloudbase tests many models against real airport observations and uses the ones that performed best for each kind of weather in each place.
Cloudbase accuracy
EdmontonCloudbase beat GFS in all 17 Day 1 forecast categories in Edmonton. No losses.
Day 1 is the forecast for the next several hours: what to wear, whether it rains on the way home, how windy it gets. In Edmonton, Cloudbase's numbers were closer to what was actually measured than GFS, a widely used global forecast model.
Day 1 scoreboard vs GFS · Edmonton
17 of 17 categories won or tied
- Temperature
- Daily total precipitation
- Precipitation occurrence
- Precipitation duration
- Precipitation type
- Daily rain amount
- Rain occurrence
- Rain duration
- Daily snow amount
- Snow occurrence
- Snow duration
- Freezing rain occurrence
- Freezing rain duration
- Thunderstorm occurrence
- Wind speed
- Peak wind gust
- Cloud cover
64.4% lower rain duration error47.6% lower peak wind gust error47.3% lower daily rain amount error
Edmonton International Airport (CYEG) · March 1, 2025 to August 30, 2026
Benchmark results
Cloudbase vs GFS · Day 1
Temperature
- Temperature2m Temperature°C average error · 13,152 cases°C MAE1.0371.037GFS 1.8511.851+44.0% vs GFS
Precipitation
- Daily total precipitationDaily Total Precipmm average error · 547 casesmm MAE0.8770.877GFS 1.3931.393+37.0% vs GFS
- Precipitation occurrencePrecip Occurrenceskill score · 13,150 casesHSS0.5560.5558GFS 0.4350.4348+27.8% vs GFS
- Precipitation durationPrecip Durationhours average error · 13,150 caseshours MAE1.8351.835GFS 2.5072.507+26.8% vs GFS
- Precipitation typePrecipitation Typeskill score · 12,977 casesMacro HSS0.4640.4642GFS 0.3630.3630+27.9% vs GFS
Rain
- Daily rain amountDaily Rain Amountmm average error · 516 casesmm MAE0.6590.659GFS 1.2511.251+47.3% vs GFS
- Rain occurrenceRain Occurrenceskill score · 13,148 casesHSS0.5630.5633GFS 0.3630.3633+55.0% vs GFS
- Rain durationRain Durationhours average error · 8,625 caseshours MAE0.7190.719GFS 2.0212.021+64.4% vs GFS
Snow
- Daily snow amountDaily Snow Amountmm water average error · 516 casesmm water MAE0.1020.102GFS 0.1300.130+21.5% vs GFS
- Snow occurrenceSnow Occurrenceskill score · 13,150 casesHSS0.6600.6602GFS 0.5170.5169+27.7% vs GFS
- Snow durationSnow Durationhours average error · 13,150 caseshours MAE0.7910.791GFS 1.1741.174+32.6% vs GFS
Severe
- Freezing rain occurrenceFreezing Rain Occ.skill score · 13,150 casesHSS0.2610.2610GFS 0.0840.0839+211.0% vs GFS
- Freezing rain durationFreezing Durationhours average error · 13,150 caseshours MAE0.0660.066GFS 0.0750.075+12.2% vs GFS
- Thunderstorm occurrenceThunderstorm Occurrenceskill score · 13,150 casesHSS0.1110.1109GFS 0.0980.0981+13.1% vs GFS
Wind
- Wind speed10m Wind Speedkm/h average error · 13,015 caseskm/h MAE3.3703.370GFS 4.0184.018+16.1% vs GFS
- Peak wind gustPeak Wind Gustkm/h average error · 381 caseskm/h MAE5.0565.056GFS 9.6409.640+47.6% vs GFS
Sky
- Cloud coverCloud Covercategories average error · 13,149 casesCat. Error MAE0.5650.565GFS 0.9630.963+41.4% vs GFS
The large number is Cloudbase's score. Average error: lower is better. Skill score: higher is better. "+% vs GFS" is how much better Cloudbase scored than GFS on the same cases. 17 categories shown for Edmonton.
Cloudbase accuracy
CalgaryCloudbase beat GFS in all 17 Day 1 forecast categories in Calgary. No losses.
Day 1 is the forecast for the next several hours: what to wear, whether it rains on the way home, how windy it gets. In Calgary, Cloudbase's numbers were closer to what was actually measured than GFS, a widely used global forecast model.
Day 1 scoreboard vs GFS · Calgary
17 of 17 categories won or tied
- Temperature
- Daily total precipitation
- Precipitation occurrence
- Precipitation duration
- Precipitation type
- Daily rain amount
- Rain occurrence
- Rain duration
- Daily snow amount
- Snow occurrence
- Snow duration
- Freezing rain occurrence
- Freezing rain duration
- Thunderstorm occurrence
- Wind speed
- Peak wind gust
- Cloud cover
54.2% lower rain duration error46.7% lower peak wind gust error40.2% lower cloud cover error
Calgary International Airport (CYYC) · March 1, 2025 to August 30, 2026
Benchmark results
Cloudbase vs GFS · Day 1
Temperature
- Temperature2m Temperature°C average error · 13,133 cases°C MAE0.7380.738GFS 0.7660.766+3.6% vs GFS
Precipitation
- Daily total precipitationDaily Total Precipmm average error · 544 casesmm MAE0.7900.790GFS 0.9690.969+18.5% vs GFS
- Precipitation occurrencePrecip Occurrenceskill score · 13,109 casesHSS0.5850.5847GFS 0.4550.4549+28.5% vs GFS
- Precipitation durationPrecip Durationhours average error · 13,109 caseshours MAE1.2711.271GFS 2.0492.049+38.0% vs GFS
- Precipitation typePrecipitation Typeskill score · 12,996 casesMacro HSS0.4530.4527GFS 0.3380.3380+33.9% vs GFS
Rain
- Daily rain amountDaily Rain Amountmm average error · 508 casesmm MAE0.4610.461GFS 0.6570.657+29.9% vs GFS
- Rain occurrenceRain Occurrenceskill score · 13,109 casesHSS0.5370.5366GFS 0.3660.3665+46.4% vs GFS
- Rain durationRain Durationhours average error · 7,646 caseshours MAE0.4950.495GFS 1.0801.080+54.2% vs GFS
Snow
- Daily snow amountDaily Snow Amountmm water average error · 508 casesmm water MAE0.1510.151GFS 0.1830.183+17.1% vs GFS
- Snow occurrenceSnow Occurrenceskill score · 6,783 casesHSS0.6980.6984GFS 0.5690.5687+22.8% vs GFS
- Snow durationSnow Durationhours average error · 13,109 caseshours MAE0.5700.570GFS 0.8490.849+32.9% vs GFS
Severe
- Freezing rain occurrenceFreezing Rain Occ.skill score · 13,108 casesHSS0.1170.1173GFS 0.0000.0000Better than GFS
- Freezing rain durationFreezing Durationhours average error · 13,108 caseshours MAE0.0120.012GFS 0.0140.014+14.3% vs GFS
- Thunderstorm occurrenceThunderstorm Occurrenceskill score · 13,108 casesHSS0.1240.1237GFS 0.0310.0312+296.2% vs GFS
Wind
- Wind speed10m Wind Speedkm/h average error · 13,133 caseskm/h MAE3.4073.407GFS 3.8783.878+12.1% vs GFS
- Peak wind gustPeak Wind Gustkm/h average error · 469 caseskm/h MAE4.9044.904GFS 9.2009.200+46.7% vs GFS
Sky
- Cloud coverCloud Covercategories average error · 13,117 casesCat. Error MAE0.6280.628GFS 1.0501.050+40.2% vs GFS
The large number is Cloudbase's score. Average error: lower is better. Skill score: higher is better. "+% vs GFS" is how much better Cloudbase scored than GFS on the same cases. 17 categories shown for Calgary.
Cloudbase accuracy
Red DeerCloudbase beat or tied GFS in all 16 Day 1 forecast categories in Red Deer. Beat 15, tied 1.
Day 1 is the forecast for the next several hours: what to wear, whether it rains on the way home, how windy it gets. In Red Deer, Cloudbase's numbers were closer to what was actually measured than GFS, a widely used global forecast model.
Day 1 scoreboard vs GFS · Red Deer
16 of 16 categories won or tied
- Temperature
- Daily total precipitation
- Precipitation occurrence
- Precipitation duration
- Precipitation type
- Daily rain amount
- Rain occurrence
- Rain duration
- Snow occurrence
- Snow duration
- =Freezing rain occurrence
- Freezing rain duration
- Thunderstorm occurrence
- Wind speed
- Peak wind gust
- Cloud cover
68.5% lower rain duration error47.7% lower daily rain amount error43.4% lower daily total precipitation error
Red Deer Regional Airport (CYQF) · March 1, 2025 to August 30, 2026
Benchmark results
Cloudbase vs GFS · Day 1
Temperature
- Temperature2m Temperature°C average error · 12,964 cases°C MAE1.0901.090GFS 1.8671.867+41.6% vs GFS
Precipitation
- Daily total precipitationDaily Total Precipmm average error · 426 casesmm MAE0.9420.942GFS 1.6661.666+43.4% vs GFS
- Precipitation occurrencePrecip Occurrenceskill score · 13,116 casesHSS0.5510.5515GFS 0.4390.4390+25.6% vs GFS
- Precipitation durationPrecip Durationhours average error · 13,116 caseshours MAE1.5011.501GFS 2.3132.313+35.1% vs GFS
- Precipitation typePrecipitation Typeskill score · 13,039 casesMacro HSS0.3780.3779GFS 0.3110.3110+21.5% vs GFS
Rain
- Daily rain amountDaily Rain Amountmm average error · 490 casesmm MAE0.7660.766GFS 1.4651.465+47.7% vs GFS
- Rain occurrenceRain Occurrenceskill score · 13,116 casesHSS0.4940.4942GFS 0.3620.3622+36.5% vs GFS
- Rain durationRain Durationhours average error · 8,567 caseshours MAE0.5980.598GFS 1.8961.896+68.5% vs GFS
Snow
- Snow occurrenceSnow Occurrenceskill score · 13,116 casesHSS0.6760.6760GFS 0.4910.4906+37.8% vs GFS
- Snow durationSnow Durationhours average error · 13,116 caseshours MAE0.6890.689GFS 1.0471.047+34.2% vs GFS
Severe
- Freezing rain occurrenceFreezing Rain Occ.skill score · 13,116 casesHSS0.000-0.0003GFS 0.000-0.0003Tied with GFS
- Freezing rain durationFreezing Durationhours average error · 13,116 caseshours MAE0.0480.048GFS 0.0520.052+7.1% vs GFS
- Thunderstorm occurrenceThunderstorm Occurrenceskill score · 13,116 casesHSS0.1500.1504GFS 0.0160.0163+822.8% vs GFS
Wind
- Wind speed10m Wind Speedkm/h average error · 12,929 caseskm/h MAE3.4113.411GFS 4.1824.182+18.4% vs GFS
- Peak wind gustPeak Wind Gustkm/h average error · 390 caseskm/h MAE5.4885.488GFS 9.4979.497+42.2% vs GFS
Sky
- Cloud coverCloud Covercategories average error · 12,997 casesCat. Error MAE0.8600.860GFS 1.1711.171+26.6% vs GFS
The large number is Cloudbase's score. Average error: lower is better. Skill score: higher is better. "+% vs GFS" is how much better Cloudbase scored than GFS on the same cases. 16 categories shown for Red Deer.
Cloudbase accuracy
Grande PrairieCloudbase beat or tied GFS in all 17 Day 1 forecast categories in Grande Prairie. Beat 16, tied 1.
Day 1 is the forecast for the next several hours: what to wear, whether it rains on the way home, how windy it gets. In Grande Prairie, Cloudbase's numbers were closer to what was actually measured than GFS, a widely used global forecast model.
Day 1 scoreboard vs GFS · Grande Prairie
17 of 17 categories won or tied
- Temperature
- Daily total precipitation
- Precipitation occurrence
- Precipitation duration
- Precipitation type
- Daily rain amount
- Rain occurrence
- Rain duration
- Daily snow amount
- Snow occurrence
- Snow duration
- Freezing rain occurrence
- =Freezing rain duration
- Thunderstorm occurrence
- Wind speed
- Peak wind gust
- Cloud cover
75.1% lower rain duration error46.9% lower daily rain amount error45.7% lower temperature error
Grande Prairie Airport (CYQU) · March 1, 2025 to August 30, 2026
Benchmark results
Cloudbase vs GFS · Day 1
Temperature
- Temperature2m Temperature°C average error · 13,117 cases°C MAE1.0371.037GFS 1.9111.911+45.7% vs GFS
Precipitation
- Daily total precipitationDaily Total Precipmm average error · 540 casesmm MAE0.6630.663GFS 0.9660.966+31.4% vs GFS
- Precipitation occurrencePrecip Occurrenceskill score · 13,088 casesHSS0.5900.5900GFS 0.4880.4884+20.8% vs GFS
- Precipitation durationPrecip Durationhours average error · 13,088 caseshours MAE1.4281.428GFS 1.8561.856+23.1% vs GFS
- Precipitation typePrecipitation Typeskill score · 12,992 casesMacro HSS0.4360.4356GFS 0.3580.3577+21.8% vs GFS
Rain
- Daily rain amountDaily Rain Amountmm average error · 518 casesmm MAE0.4600.460GFS 0.8660.866+46.9% vs GFS
- Rain occurrenceRain Occurrenceskill score · 13,088 casesHSS0.4730.4732GFS 0.2600.2602+81.9% vs GFS
- Rain durationRain Durationhours average error · 7,631 caseshours MAE0.5730.573GFS 2.2992.299+75.1% vs GFS
Snow
- Daily snow amountDaily Snow Amountmm water average error · 518 casesmm water MAE0.1560.156GFS 0.1900.190+17.5% vs GFS
- Snow occurrenceSnow Occurrenceskill score · 13,088 casesHSS0.6950.6952GFS 0.6060.6056+14.8% vs GFS
- Snow durationSnow Durationhours average error · 13,088 caseshours MAE0.6150.615GFS 0.8900.890+31.0% vs GFS
Severe
- Freezing rain occurrenceFreezing Rain Occ.skill score · 13,088 casesHSS0.1690.1693GFS 0.0490.0494+242.9% vs GFS
- Freezing rain durationFreezing Durationhours average error · 13,088 caseshours MAE0.0610.061GFS 0.0610.061Tied with GFS
- Thunderstorm occurrenceThunderstorm Occurrenceskill score · 13,088 casesHSS0.1980.1982GFS 0.0590.0589+236.5% vs GFS
Wind
- Wind speed10m Wind Speedkm/h average error · 12,981 caseskm/h MAE3.9463.946GFS 4.9964.996+21.0% vs GFS
- Peak wind gustPeak Wind Gustkm/h average error · 374 caseskm/h MAE5.3795.379GFS 9.7279.727+44.7% vs GFS
Sky
- Cloud coverCloud Covercategories average error · 13,098 casesCat. Error MAE0.6240.624GFS 1.0171.017+38.6% vs GFS
The large number is Cloudbase's score. Average error: lower is better. Skill score: higher is better. "+% vs GFS" is how much better Cloudbase scored than GFS on the same cases. 17 categories shown for Grande Prairie.
Many models tested
Cloudbase compares the major weather models on the same past forecasts, to see where each one is strongest.
The best performer gets used
For each kind of weather in each city, your forecast comes from the recipe that scored best in testing.
Scored on the same cases
Every number here compares Cloudbase and GFS on exactly the same forecasts and observations. No cherry-picking.
How we tested
- Test period: March 1, 2025 to August 30, 2026.
- Forecasts were compared with observations at each airport weather station: Edmonton: Edmonton International Airport (CYEG); Calgary: Calgary International Airport (CYYC); Red Deer: Red Deer Regional Airport (CYQF); Grande Prairie: Grande Prairie Airport (CYQU).
- "Day 1" means forecasts made with under 12 hours of lead time.
- GFS is the US global weather model. It was scored on exactly the same cases as Cloudbase.
Limits
- Only Day 1 has this same-case comparison with GFS.
- These results are past performance at four Alberta airports. They are not a guarantee of future forecasts.
- Accuracy in other places is not shown here.
- Red Deer's daily snow amounts are left out because that forecast route is borrowed from Calgary.